Framework for Deriving Failure Probability Functions for Underground Cables

Client: CEATI International & Utility Working Group

Year of Completion: 2019

Underground cables introduce greater risks and complexities versus other distribution assets, due to the limited ability to visually inspect cables, along with the high cost to replace these assets when they reach end-of-life. Recognizing the importance for utilities to be able to proactively forecast when underground cable will fail and when replacements must take place, CEATI wanted to develop a guide for instructing utilities how to derive failure probability functions for underground cables leveraging their own available data.

The CEATI Framework for Deriving Failure Probability Functions for Underground Cables (T184700 #50/153) initiative involved the development of a practical guide that can be easily implemented by utilities, leveraging their available repository of nameplate, failure and replacement data associated to underground cables. The guide also provides direction for utilities on specific data requirements, including the level of detail that this data must possess in order to produce accurate failure probability functions.

By leveraging the results of this initiative, utilities can develop their own underground cable failure curves in order to ultimately prioritize and replace cables before they fail within the system and subject customers to critical outage impacts.